TIFA survey: Sifuna goes from zero to Luhya kingpin in 12 months

Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna.[File, Standard]

A year ago, Edwin Sifuna did not register a single percentage point in Kenya's presidential preference polls.

Today, he leads the Luhya community and sits fourth in the national race, a new poll shows.

The TIFA Research survey released on Thursday, May 14,  places the Nairobi Senator at 10 per cent in presidential preference, up from zero in May 2025.

Among the Luhya community, 44 per cent of those who acknowledge an ethnic community leader name Sifuna as theirs, placing him ahead of all other contenders for that community's political allegiance.

The rise tracks directly with Sifuna's leadership of the 'Linda Mwananchi' faction within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), which has positioned him as the most vocal opponent of the Broad-Based Government (BBG) arrangement between ODM and President William Ruto's United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

Seventy-three per cent of ODM supporters back his faction over the rival 'Linda Ground' camp led by Oburu Odinga. Among ODM supporters who oppose the BBG, that figure rises to 90 per cent.

Sifuna draws 21 per cent support along the Coast, 15 per cent in the Central Rift and 14 per cent in Western Kenya, suggesting his appeal is beginning to cross regional boundaries.

His 10 per cent national presidential rating places him ahead of Gachagua's nine per cent, a man who served as deputy president until his impeachment in October 2024.

Among opposition supporters, a Kalonzo Musyoka-Sifuna presidential ticket attracts 28 per cent support, second only to a Kalonzo-Matiang'i pairing at 31 per cent.

Those with no opinion on the BBG identify Sifuna as Ruto's most potent challenger at 18 per cent, ahead of all other opposition figures in that category.