As the country’s political landscape continues to shift ahead of the 2027 general election, Nakuru County—populous and highly cosmopolitan—has emerged as a key battleground for both government and opposition forces.
A significant portion of Kikuyu voters in the county, who previously solidly backed President William Ruto’s presidential bid, have started to drift away from him following the impeachment of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.
In the wake of Gachagua’s ouster, President Ruto entered a political alliance with ODM leader Raila Odinga, his main challenger in the last general election, much to the dismay of Mt Kenya voters.
Political observers suggest that Ruto is determined to pull out all the stops to ensure Nakuru does not slip from his control, considering its strategic location in the heart of Rift Valley, his political stronghold.
As the political landscape continues to evolve, Nakuru is poised to be a major focus for President Ruto’s UDA party, the Gachagua-led Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP), and the Jubilee Party, associated with former President Uhuru Kenyatta.
The county has slightly over one million voters, according to the 2022 Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) listing, with a significant number of Kikuyu community members who traditionally vote alongside their counterparts in the Mount Kenya region.
Nakuru is third in voter registration, after the capital, Nairobi and Kiambu County, according to IEBC data.
The hostility in the Mt Kenya region towards Ruto’s administration has created ripples in Nakuru, leading some Kikuyu voters and their leaders to gravitate towards DCP, while others await political signals from Uhuru.
New voting patterns are likely to emerge as aspirants for the gubernatorial seat still maintain rapport with members of the Kalenjin community.
Nevertheless, ethnicity is likely to emerge as the overall variable influencing voter decision in the next election.
The Kalenjin community constitutes the second largest voting bloc, alongside substantial numbers of Luo, Kisii, and Luhya voters, as well as smaller populations of Maasai, Kamba, Somali and Turkana voters.
Nakuru has historically occupied a central role in the country's socio-economic and political landscape since the pre-independence era.
All five of the country’s presidents—Mzee Jomo Kenyatta, Daniel arap Moi, Mwai Kibaki, Uhuru Kenyatta and the incumbent Ruto-and their close allies own land and property in Nakuru.
During the colonial period, Nakuru served as the capital for white settlers in the expansive Rift Valley region, where they owned large tracts of land.
After independence, Nakuru became a hotbed of political activity due to competing ethnic and political interests among the diverse communities in the region
Throughout the 1990s, as pro-democracy activists advocated for the reintroduction of multi-party politics, Nakuru became the epicentre of politically instigated ethnic clashes in the Rift Valley.
The region experienced waves of violence every electoral cycle, with peace typically restored following political agreements, such as the pact between Uhuru and Ruto during the 2013 elections.
Their collaboration further solidified peace during the 2017 elections and allowed both the Kikuyu and Kalenjin communities to unite behind President Ruto in 2022.
With changing political dynamics and shifting power structures, Kikuyus in Nakuru and the broader Rift Valley region are seeking to establish their footing as the clock ticks towards the 2027 general election.
Political pundits anticipate that new voting trends will emerge in Nakuru as divisions widen, threatening the fragile political alliance between the Kikuyu and Kalenjin communities.
Despite the inroads made by the DCP party, Governor Susan Kihika—who was elected on the UDA party ticket—has vowed to remain loyal to Ruto.
“I will not leave Ruto for Wamonyoro, never!” she declared to a crowd in Bahati constituency during Madaraka Day celebrations on June 1.
Recently, in a bid to galvanize support for Ruto, Kihika led a delegation of over 1,000 elected leaders, opinion leaders and business representatives for a meeting with the president at State House, Nairobi.
Ruto took this opportunity to reaffirm his commitment to implementing the flagship projects he promised to Nakuru residents during his campaign.
These projects include expanding the approximately 170-kilometer Rironi-Mau Summit Highway, developing Lanet Airport, creating a Special Economic Zone in the Mai Mahiu area of Naivasha, and constructing the Itare Dam to alleviate water shortages in Nakuru City and other parts of the county.
Nakuru Town East MP David Gikaria, whom Kihika has been campaigning for as a potential senator, has indicated he will run on Ruto’s party ticket.
The emergence of DCP signals a new chapter in the county's political landscape.
Several gubernatorial candidates and aspirants for other elective positions in the county have also expressed intentions to contest on DCP or Jubilee party tickets.
Geoffrey Mwangi, the former Chief Executive Officer of the defunct National Hospital Insurance Fund (NHIF), is among the first to declare his intention to unseat Governor Kihika on a DCP ticket come 2027.
Mwangi, a political novice, says the party is steadily gaining traction, particularly among aspirants and grassroots actors seeking a fresh, people-centred political alternative.
“The DCP message of citizen-driven leadership, dignity in governance and inclusivity is resonating well with the people of Nakuru and interest in the party has grown organically over the past few weeks,” Mwangi claims.
He says the party has attracted aspirants for various elective positions across eight of the eleven sub-counties.
“Notably, areas such as Nakuru Town East and West, Naivasha, Njoro, Bahati, Subukia and Gilgil have shown strong early engagement.” Mwangi says.
He notes that in those constituencies, community champions are emerging and helping to establish a foothold for the party’s presence.
He argues that DCP stands the chance of unseating the current crop of leaders elected under the UDA party in 2022.
“There is no doubt that DCP will be the preferred political party in the region. Nakuru has always voted with Mt Kenya in the previous three general elections, 2027 will not be different,” he said.
On the other hand, areas such as Kuresoi North and South, and Rongai constituencies have shown slower uptake, largely due to entrenched political loyalties and a general cautiousness towards emerging formations.
Mwangi joins Naivasha MP Jayne Kihara and former head of Government Delivery Service Delivery Unit Peter Mbae in an effort to ensure voters in Nakuru rally behind DCP.
Dr Mbae has declared his interest for the Nakuru Senate seat, and has emerged as the fiercest critic of the Ruto administration.
He has been a frequent guest analyst in vernacular TV and radio stations, which have a large audience in Nakuru to articulate his agenda for Nakuru and hold the national government accountable.
The trio has been instrumental in DCP making significant inroads in the Subukia, Bahati, Naivasha, and Gilgil constituencies, where its presence is strongly felt and it enjoys considerable support.
Kihara, the Naivasha MP, dumped Ruto after Gachagua’s impeachment.
She did not waste time, she immediately declared allegiance to DCP, and actively involved herself in leading delegations from Nakuru to Wamunyoro, Gachagua’s rural home in Nyeri County.
In a recent interview with the Sunday Standard, Kihara said DCP has made progress in Nakuru, and there were clear signs that the party will have a strong foundation in the region.
“This progress, though still in the early stages, reflects a strong foundation being laid for DCP in Nakuru County. Our commitment is to build steadily, respectfully, and in alignment with the hopes and aspirations of the people,” She said.
However, the party faces serious internal and external challenges in growing its membership in Nakuru.
Andrew Nyabuto, a local political commentator, argues that the DCP will struggle to make an impact in Nakuru because it has been infiltrated by self-serving leaders and cannot withstand external scrutiny.
He cites recent DCP meetings in Nakuru, where interim officials were engaged in disputes, as evidence of disorganization.
"Persistent wrangles among the interim officials have caused confusion, which may lead the party to fade into history as a failed experiment," he warns.
Nyabuto emphasizes that unless the DCP conducts a sincere and strategic self-assessment, it will be difficult for it to gain traction in key counties outside Mt Kenya.
"It must confront its internal challenges head-on and commit to reforms to establish itself as a credible and effective political entity. Only by doing so can it fulfil its potential and make a meaningful impact in Nakuru."
To counter DCP's growing influence in Nakuru, Governor Kihika has begun taking action against rebellious UDA-elected ward representatives who have openly expressed a desire to join the DCP.
Her first casualty of this crackdown is Molo MCA Ngware Ng’ang’a, who also served as the Nakuru County Assembly Deputy Speaker.
Ngware was impeached as Deputy Speaker after he publicly criticized the 2025/2026 Finance Bill during the burial of the grandmother of Molo MP Kuria Kimani.
He was accused of undermining the national government and associating himself with the DCP, leading Kihika's allies in the assembly to initiate his impeachment.
Immediately following his impeachment, Simon Ole Nasieku, the interim Secretary General of the DCP in the county, criticized the ward representatives who voted for the motion.
He asserted that those who voted to remove Ngware will be denied DCP membership and candidacy for the 2027 elections.
“As the Secretary General of DCP Nakuru Chapter, I want to make it clear that anyone on the list of these MCAs who decide to impeach Ngware as Deputy Speaker should forget about vying for a DCP ticket in 2027,” he stated.
Gikaria, a close ally of Ruto, warned Nakuru residents to be cautious of the DCP, suggesting that elected leaders associating with the party are effectively signing their political death warrants.
“Gachagua divided Kenyans along ethnic lines, promoting the narrative of ‘shareholders’ versus ‘non-shareholders.’ According to him, shareholders were entitled to everything, while non-shareholders were entitled to nothing,” Gikaria stated.
He added that it would be challenging for the DCP to make any gains in Nakuru, as the residents of the county know what they want and are unlikely to be swayed by leaders lacking a meaningful agenda for the country.
Kimani Ngunjiri, the former Bahati MP and once a close ally of the President, has taken a more passive stance after falling out with Ruto.
He is now charting his own political party, leading the little-known Future Party of Kenya (FPK) that he plans to use as a vehicle for his re-election in Bahati.
Ngunjiri is opposed to DCP and has cautioned that Gachagua’s abrasive and ethnicised brand of politics does not resonate with Kikuyus in Nakuru and other parts of the Rift Valley region.
“DCP will not make that much impact if the owners were only keen on advancing interests of one region. Gachagua should reach out to other communities. Here in Nakuru and the entire Rift Valley, we have almost all communities. We cannot allow anyone to preach divisions,” he said.
